Risk of ruin

Monte Carlo estimate using your win rate, R:R, and risk per trade. This is educational tooling, not advice or a guarantee.

Inputs

WIN_RATE (%)RISK_REWARD (R)RISK_PER_TRADE (%)STARTING_EQUITY ($)RUIN_DD (%)TRADES (N)RUNS

Outputs

Ruin floor

$25000

Probability of ruin

0.0%

Median ending equity

$72444

Kelly fraction (theoretical)

25.00%

INTERPRETATION

- Kelly is a mathematical optimum under strong assumptions; real execution noise makes it aggressive.
- The simulation assumes each trade risks a fixed % of current equity, win adds $R$ multiples, loss subtracts 1R.
- Use this to choose conservative defaults and keep buffers inside your prop ruleset.

Desk

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